Farmer's Almanac: Fact or fiction?
by Katie Maupin, posted Sept. 21, 2007
Eighty to 85 percent accuracy. That is what the Farmer’s Almanac claims when predicting weather — a startling number considering that forecasts are made as much as two years in advance.
Anthony Lupo, MU associate professor of atmospheric science, said in general, long-range forecasting is “better than a coin flip depending on how you measure it, but not 70 to 80 percent accurate.”
He stresses that without knowing how the Farmer’s Almanac measured the accuracy of its forecast, you cannot know for sure whether that statistic is correct. TV forecasters average anywhere from 95 to 97 percent accuracy on their predictions. However, long-range forecasting is quite different from your normal extended forecast seen on TV.
Long-range forecasts are done in a much more general sense. An example of a long-range forecast is “this winter will be colder than average.” The fact that the Farmer’s Almanac makes forecasts for specific days so far in advance is what makes it so unique.
“Forecasting particular days is impossible past 14 days,” Lupo said.
Patrick Market, MU associate professor of atmospheric science, admits that such general long-range predictions are in the realm of possibility, but there’s no scientific method to prove it.
“The big problem the scientific community has with such outlets like the Farmer’s Almanac is they say they have a method, but they won’t share it,” Market said.
With modern technology, the climate prediction center can produce forecasts up to a year in advance, Market said. So it wouldn’t be impossible for the Farmer’s Almanac to do the same, but there are simply not enough scientific grounds to say for sure.
Lupo explains that modern scientists do use some basic techniques such as analog forecasting, where meteorologists look at past weather records with similar meteorological set-ups to make their predictions.
But don’t throw away your almanac just yet. Lupo said he would heed their long-range forecasts and even their monthly predictions, but their daily forecasts are no more than a guess.
The Farmer’s Almanac is known for being secretive when it comes to its weather predicting tools and will only admit to using “top secret mathematical and astronomical formula, that relies on sunspot activity, tidal action, planetary position and many other factors.” Even the forecaster’s identity is kept a secret, as it uses the identity of Caleb Weatherbee.
The question remains; why the secret? That is a far simpler mathematical equation that includes the 4 million copies sold annually. The answer is money. The Farmer’s Almanac is a business, too, and it seems that the scientific world will never know its secrets for success.
